yikes!---avian flu!

from:

http://tinyurl.com/8yrgt

Avian Flu Outbreak May Kill 1.9 Million Americans (Update1)

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- A U.S. outbreak of avian flu may kill as many as 1.9
million Americans and hospitalize 9.9 million, according to estimates in a
U.S. plan released today that's intended to protect Americans against a
pandemic.

Medical personnel and workers in drug-manufacturing plants should receive
vaccines first, under the plan fleshed out by Health and Human Services
Secretary Michael Leavitt. President George W. Bush yesterday proposed
spending $7.1 billion on vaccines and drugs, medical research and training
for public- health officials worldwide. More than 90 percent of the money
would go to Leavitt's department.

``We're in a race against nature,'' said Harvey Fineberg, president of the
Institute of Medicine, a U.S. government advisory group. If a bird flu
outbreak did occur, ``we would all be in jeopardy, and it is possible that
millions of people would die,'' Fineberg said in an interview today.

Bush proposed spending as much as $1.5 billion for the government to buy and
stockpile enough vaccine for 20 million people; $1 billion for stockpiling
anti-viral drugs to reduce the flu's severity; $130 million to help
drugmakers prepare for increased production capacity; $2.8 billion to develop
news ways to manufacture vaccines; and $583 million to help state and local
governments prepare response plans.

Leavitt testified about the 396-page plan today at a hearing in the U.S.
Senate and is scheduled to appear at a House hearing later today.

Potential Impact

Health officials increased their estimate of a pandemic's potential toll from
207,000 deaths and as many as 700,000 hospitalizations to scale preparations
for a flu outbreak as bad as one that began in 1918, killing as many as 50
million people worldwide, said Bruce Gellin, director of the Department of
Health and Human Services' national vaccine program.

``We felt it was best suited to have our preparation based on that worst case,
which in recent history was 1918,'' Gellin said. The earlier estimate was
based on the 1957 flu pandemic, which was milder, he said.

A global flu epidemic, or pandemic, may arise if the flu circulating among
wild and domestic birds mutates into a version easily transmitted among
people. Scientists have said humans may be vulnerable to such a virus because
they don't have a natural immunity to it as they do against the flu that
occurs annually.

Deaths in Asia

More than 140 million birds have died or been destroyed in Asia as a result of
the avian flu, and 62 of 121 people infected by the virus have died, the
World Health Organization said. Most human cases have occurred as a result of
contact with the blood or feces of infected birds, the WHO said.

The new HHS plan warns that ``the next pandemic may lead to more illness
occurring more quickly than in the past.'' That's because larger, crowded
cities worldwide increasingly contain older people with chronic medical
conditions that make them vulnerable to flu and its complications. The
frequency of international travel will spread the disease, the plan said.

The resulting wave of illness would overwhelm ``countries and health systems
that are not adequately prepared,'' it said, adding that a pandemic could
last a year or more.

Annual Flu

Researchers say they don't expect the virus to mutate into a form capable of
transmission among humans in the next year or two, if it happens at all.
Health officials said preparation for a pandemic may help boost U.S. efforts
against the annual flu.

``If we do all this work, and there's no pandemic, you still have 36,000
people die every year of seasonal flu, and you could make a big dent in
that,'' said Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public
Health Association, in an interview yesterday. ``Wouldn't that be
wonderful?''

State and local health departments should report any new influenza strains
identified in patients to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, the plan said. Officials should immediately call CDC's Emergency
Response Hotline to report suspected cases of bird flu, it said.

Bush's strategy is aimed at identifying and containing any avian influenza
outbreak, developing vaccines and drugs to combat the virus and mustering a
federal response as quickly as possible to save lives.

`A Forest Fire'

``A pandemic is a lot like a forest fire,'' Bush said yesterday. ``If caught
early, it might be extinguished with limited damage. If allowed to smolder
undetected, it can grow to an inferno that spreads quickly beyond our ability
to control it.''

One critical hurdle is developing, producing and distributing an effective
vaccine. Paris-based Sanofi-Aventis SA, the biggest supplier of seasonal flu
shots for the U.S. market, has tested a vaccine that raises humans' immune
protection to bird flu. Other companies developing a pandemic vaccine include
Brentford, U.K.-based GlaxoSmithKline Plc; Akzo Nobel NV, based in Arnhem,
The Netherlands-based; Emeryville, California-based Chiron Corp.; and San
Diego-based Vical Inc.

The federal government will buy and distribute pandemic flu vaccines in the
early stages of an outbreak, because shots will be in short supply, the HHS
plan said. HHS will also forecast when vaccine will become available from
manufacturers.

Liability Shield

``What often happens in a situation like this is people latch onto very
concrete things, like buying vaccine,'' Benjamin said. ``That's not
readiness. That's stockpiling. We have got to have first responders who know
what their role is, people who can get shots into people's arms quickly, and
hospitals who can handle patients.''

Bush also is urging Congress to act on legislation that would shield
drugmakers from product liability lawsuits to encourage more
vaccine-manufacturing capacity. The shield would cover only pandemic-related
products, Leavitt said in a conference call with reporters today.

The world's flu-vaccine plants can produce about 450 million shots over six
months, said Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and
Infectious Diseases. That would protect less than 10 percent of the world's
population.

The U.S. wants to increase domestic production so that vaccine supplies will
be assured during a pandemic. Health officials have warned that other
countries may close their borders to flu vaccine exports during a worldwide
outbreak.

``A primary tenet of our vaccine effort is to make sure that it is produced
domestically,'' Leavitt said on the call.

Emergency Funds

The U.S. Senate last week approved $8 billion in emergency funds to guard
against a bird flu outbreak. The money would be distributed at Bush's
discretion after consultation with congressional committee chairmen. That may
not be enough money, Benjamin said.

``The question is: what happens with our existing funding?'' Benjamin said.
``We've already had $100 million in reductions in public-health grants in the
president's 2006 budget request. Public health is still in a big hole.''

About half of U.S. adults say they are very confident or somewhat confident in
the government's ability to handle a bird flu outbreak, according to a
CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released yesterday. The telephone poll of 1,008
adults, conducted from Oct. 21-23, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3
percentage points.