put him up to knock him down

From Stratfor Intelligence (a $700 a year intelligence gathering news service that a liason of a liason of Anaphorian Intellegence pays for:

IRAN: THE ATTACK AGAINST THE PRESIDENTIAL MOTORCADE

"A group of armed men the Iranian government calls "bandits" attacked President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's motorcade Dec. 14 in Iran's southern Sistan-Balochistan province, although the government -- in its first statement on the attack -- said Dec. 19 that Ahmadinejad was not present at the time and that this was not an assassination attempt. One of Ahmadinejad's security guards and a locally hired driver died in the attack, and another security guard was injured. Two gunmen also died in the ensuing firefight, the government said.

The attack occurred at about 6:50 p.m. local time Dec. 14 (some reports have said Dec. 15) as the president's motorcade traveled from Saravan to the coastal city of Chabahar on the Zabol-Saravan highway near the town of Zabol. At the time, officials say, Ahmadinejad was making a speech in Zahedan while on a three-day visit to the province aimed at improving relations between the central government and the locals. Sistan- Balochistan is one of the only provinces in the Shiite-dominated country with a sizable Sunni population -- and clashes with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in the province are common.

The Iranian president is protected by the Ansar al-Mahdi Corps, a unit of the Revolutionary Guards. Although the unit is specifically responsible for the personal security protection of senior Iranian officials, the security service in general is composed mostly of cronies of the regime rather than highly trained security professionals.
Given the Iranian regime's ties to terrorist groups, Tehran's security services unlikely have received training from a country with an advanced security service. Furthermore, although Iran's security services could have obtained sophisticated security equipment from some source, the lack of training regarding its proper use makes it less effective. All of these factors leave top Iranian officials without adequate protection.

Ahmadinejad -- the first non-cleric Iranian president -- has gained a reputation as a firebrand since his election in June. Comments from the president that Israel should be "wiped off the map" -- later toned down to say that Israel should be relocated to Europe, the United States or Alaska -- and about the "myth of the Holocaust" have prompted international criticism, even from traditional friends and trading partners of the Iranian regime.

Many in the Iranian media immediately accused Israel's Mossad or the CIA of attempting to kill the president, a prospect that cannot be ruled out immediately. Many other groups, however, are capable of mounting such an attack, including the Sunni and Balochi rebels in the southern regions. Such rebels also could have been contracted by other groups -- possibly including intelligence services working against the Iranians -- to carry out the attack. This would indicate that someone inside Ahmadinejad's security detail had compromised the president's schedule or the motorcade's route -- but erred in believing Ahmadinejad would be in the vehicle at the time.

Given that bandits typically will not attack a hardened target with armed security simply for the loot, this does not appear to be the work of common criminals. If this was an assassination attempt, then, Ahmadinejad was fortunate to have been elsewhere at the time -- given that his security detail likely lacks the training to adequately protect him."
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Kraig Grady
North American Embassy of Anaphoria Island <http://anaphoria.com/>
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